Paris’ appeals court is scheduled to rule Tuesday in the embezzlement case involving Marine Le Pen, a decision that may determine if one of France’s leading presidential contenders can participate in next year's election.
Le Pen, aged 57, is appealing a conviction from March 2025. That conviction found her and other members of her National Rally party guilty of misusing European Parliament funds by paying party staff with money designated for EU parliamentary assistants between 2004 and 2016.
The lower court had sentenced her to prison time, suspended pending appeal, and imposed a five-year ban on holding elected office. Le Pen has denied any wrongdoing and maintains hopes of mounting a fourth presidential bid.
If she is prohibited from running, her long-time protégé Jordan Bardella, 30, could become the party’s presidential candidate, thereby altering the race to succeed President Emmanuel Macron.
The following outlines potential outcomes and their implications for France's 2027 presidential election.
### Le Pen Seeks Acquittal
In the most favorable scenario for Le Pen, the appeals court could dismiss all charges against her.
During the five-week appeal trial earlier this year, Le Pen admitted to "a mistake." She informed the court that some employees paid as EU parliamentary aides performed work for her party, formerly known as the National Front, but she insisted she believed such work was permissible and never intended to conceal it.
She also criticized European Parliament officials for failing to warn her party at the time that its hiring practices might violate regulations.
Le Pen’s lawyer, Rodolphe Bosselut, stated to the three-judge panel that his client "is entrusting you with the work of her life, and the question is thus whether it will end here or whether it can be rebuilt."
Prosecutors retain the option to appeal to the Court of Cassation, France's highest court, to challenge an acquittal.
### If She Receives a Two-Year Ban or Less on Elected Office
The appeals court might find Le Pen guilty but reduce the ban on holding elected office to two years or less, or it could impose no ban at all.
Since the lower court ordered the ban to take immediate effect, Le Pen has been serving that portion of the sentence since March 31 last year. A ban lasting two years or less would conclude before the first round of the French presidential election in April 2027.
However, this does not guarantee she will run: any prison sentence, electronic monitoring, or other judicial restrictions could severely impede a nationwide campaign.
Le Pen has indicated that she would not launch a presidential bid under such circumstances.
"If I’m allowed to be a candidate but am effectively prevented from campaigning freely, then you understand that wouldn’t be possible," Le Pen said in an interview with LCI channel on Wednesday.
"I can’t be dependent on a judge to authorize me to go hold a campaign rally ... or to visit a market."
### The Court Could Issue a Heavy Sentence
Prosecutors requested the appeals court sentence Le Pen to four years in prison, including three suspended, alongside a five-year ban from elected office. They alleged that Le Pen was at the head of a "system" designed to "siphon off" EU public funds for her party's benefit.
Although not specifically requested by prosecutors, the appeals court has the authority to order the ban on holding elected office to take immediate effect, mirroring the lower court’s action.
Le Pen could still appeal to the Court of Cassation, but it remains uncertain whether that body would suspend the sentence pending a final decision.
The Court of Cassation has previously stated that if asked to review the case, it would aim to issue a ruling before the 2027 presidential election.
### Le Pen States She Will Not Wait to Decide
"You can’t launch a presidential campaign at the last minute," Le Pen said during the appeal trial proceedings.
She has argued that prolonged uncertainty—including a potential appeal to the Court of Cassation—would effectively prevent her from running because she would not wish to jeopardize her party's prospects.
France's presidential race is anticipated to begin taking shape in September before accelerating early next year. Candidates must also secure endorsements from 500 elected officials to qualify for the ballot, which makes replacing a presidential nominee late in the campaign challenging.
"If I’m prevented from running but the Court of Cassation rules in my favor three or four months later, it will be too late to conduct a proper presidential campaign," Le Pen told RTL radio last year.