Tehran's grocery stores are well-stocked, yet many families struggle to afford basic necessities. Unemployment is rising, and those employed are working longer hours for wages that are half what they were a year ago, pushing food, medicine, and other goods—excluding heavily subsidized gasoline—out of reach.
“We have virtually given up on many things,” stated Ahmad Karimi, 52, a taxi driver and father of two who has been working 15-hour days to survive. “We’re cutting out fruit, we’re cutting out protein, we’ve given up leisure, we even work on weekends.”
Nearly six months into the conflict with the United States and Israel, the Iranian economy is suffering due to sanctions and a naval blockade that severely impedes the country's ability to export oil, its most valuable commodity.
Whether this escalating economic pressure will soon result in military or political concessions from Iran remains uncertain; however, some experts are skeptical. Since the war began, Iran has attacked oil-rich neighbors and U.S. bases in the region, as well as disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which is its primary strategic asset.
Iran is attempting to leverage this retaliatory pressure—which is driving up global energy prices—to conclude the war on favorable terms. It is demanding sanctions relief and seeking sufficient control over the strait to require payment from ships transporting energy and other goods.
The Trump administration, currently engaged in disputes over a waterway within a conflict initiated to curb Iran’s nuclear program, is now threatening even harsher sanctions to compel the Islamic Republic's submission. Nevertheless, experts suggest that U.S. President Donald Trump may be underestimating how long Iran can sustain its resistance.
Iran has been subject to Western sanctions for years and has developed proficiency in partially circumventing them. This includes expanding domestic production, utilizing informal cross-border trade networks, acquiring restricted items through third countries, and employing a shadow fleet for oil transport.
“Iran’s resistance capacity not only avoids collapse but also prevents the economic pain from translating into the political pressure and changes that the U.S. expects,” commented Hadi Kahalzadeh, an expert on Iran’s economy at Brandeis University.
### Iran’s Economic Strains Carry an ‘Emotional Toll’
Tehran's extensive Grand Bazaar is frequently crowded with shoppers seeking more affordable staples than those found in local grocery stores, where rice costs 60% more and beef costs 150% more compared to pre-war levels.
A mother of two from northern Iran shared a photo on X this week after buying milk, eggs, toilet paper, and a few other items but no meat. She reported the purchase cost 89 million rials (approximately $65).
“Buying basic necessities has become our main priority, and our shopping basket has gotten smaller and more limited,” the 41-year-old told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity due to fear of retaliation.
“The emotional toll and the pressure we’re under are another story,” she added. “Every time we have to say no to our children, every time we have to go back and forth over a decision, whether it’s a class you’d love your children to take or something they really want you to buy for them, it’s genuinely exhausting.”
By the close of the year, inflation in Iran is projected by the International Monetary Fund to rise nearly 70%, and the country's economy—already damaged by a decade of sanctions before the war—is forecast to contract by over 5%.
While government subsidies have kept gasoline prices low, this may not last indefinitely as supplies become tighter. A presidential aide informed Iranian state television last week that the country is now consuming more gasoline daily than it produces and might need to increase prices—a move that has historically led to widespread protests.
### Iranians Direct Anger Toward Sanctioning Nations
Iran’s theocratic leaders were already confronting economic dissatisfaction before the U.S. and Israel initiated the war on February 28th. Protests swept across the country earlier this year before being violently suppressed, resulting in thousands of deaths and tens of thousands believed to have been arrested.
Hassan Golmoradi, an economist based in Tehran, stated that many Iranians have now directed some of their economic frustrations toward the countries imposing sanctions and those responsible for attacks that destroyed factories and critical infrastructure and killed numerous civilians.
“Despite the hardships and difficulties, they have shown considerable patience in enduring the resulting economic pressures,” Golmoradi said.
Iran's leaders maintain that participating in anti-government protests is a treasonous offense punishable by death.
“They do suffer, but they do not believe that joining violent protests can achieve anything for themselves and their families,” commented Mohammad Farzanegan, a professor of Middle Eastern economics at the University of Marburg in Germany.
### Trump Threatens Stricter Sanctions
On Wednesday, Trump pledged on social media to deploy against Iran “the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country.” He also threatened secondary sanctions against nations and corporations that continue to conduct business with Iran.
The United Arab Emirates, which had previously allowed Iran to circumvent sanctions and receive goods from other countries for years, announced this week it was halting all trade with Tehran. Trump contacted the UAE leader, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the day before the announcement.
Given the economic difficulties, the elected government of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed a preference for a negotiated end to the war. “What concerns us is people’s livelihoods and their economic situation, and we are doing everything we can to deal with it,” he told reporters last week.
However, the most powerful entity within Iran remains the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which has strengthened following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that killed Iran's top leaders during the war's initial stages. The Guard is pushing for greater concessions from the U.S., including Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and financial compensation for the conflict.
With peace negotiations stalled, Iran’s hardliners believe their nation can withstand the economic pressures of the conflict longer than its opponents.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed a former Revolutionary Guard commander to lead Iran’s powerful Supreme National Security Council this month, signaling his preference for the hard-line approach.
### A Taxi Driver Believes Change is Necessary
Official government statistics list Iran’s unemployment rate at 9.1%, though state-affiliated media outlets suggest the actual figure is likely much higher. A Labor Ministry official reported last week that over 1 million jobs were lost by late May, just three months into the war.
In a sign of some concern regarding public opinion, the government has reduced the strict enforcement of mandatory hijab regulations compared to previous periods—a social freedom long sought by many.
However, many Iranians are currently focused on how their economic circumstances restrict their lifestyles.
Karimi, the taxi driver, stated that Iran’s leaders must take action soon to ease the financial strain he and others are experiencing.
“The people won’t be able to continue living like this,” he said. “We’re simply breathing, surviving, and trying to make it from one day to the next.”