President Donald Trump has sought for months to compel Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, employing tactics ranging from airstrikes and naval blockades to negotiations and threats against a "whole civilization."
However, experts indicate that restoring oil tanker traffic in the crucial Middle East shipping corridor to prewar levels would likely necessitate a much larger U.S. naval presence or potentially tens of thousands of American troops on Iranian territory. Despite intermittent fighting, Iran retains the capacity to target vessels in the narrow Persian Gulf waterway using drones and missiles concealed within a country one-third the size of the continental United States.
Jason H. Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and former Pentagon official, stated, “Iran has been preparing for this type of asymmetric conflict for decades now. I think they’re starting to demonstrate why no other U.S. president since Reagan has elected to engage at this level of conflict with Iran, because they have that ability to completely disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.”
On Monday, Trump announced that the U.S. is reimposing its blockade on Iranian ports and will levy charges for safe passage through the strait. Iran maintains control over the waterway, through which 20% of global oil typically flows, while both sides have exchanged fire in recent skirmishes threatening a return to full-scale war.
This situation highlights Trump's dilemma as commercial shipping remains obstructed in the strait, oil prices are rising again, and Iran shows no sign of yielding. The conflict has been unpopular with many Americans and could influence upcoming midterm elections amid high gas prices.
Eric Lob, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East program and professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University, commented, “They thought the situation was under control, and now they’re seeing renewed escalations, and the markets responding negatively to this.”
Lob added, “It’s really a kind of test of wills to see how much economic pain the Iranians are willing to absorb and then how much economic pain and even political liability this could be for Trump and the Republicans heading into November.”
### Securing the Strait May Require Ground Troops
Prior to his role at the Middle East Institute in Washington, Campbell was a researcher at RAND, where he collaborated with the U.S. military on war-game simulations against Iran.
“The things they’re doing now are precisely the types of things that were discussed and came up in really all of these types of situational scenarios,” Campbell noted.
Campbell explained that Iran disperses its weapon production across various facilities to mitigate attack risks, and its military units often operate independently without awaiting orders from Tehran. This decentralized structure makes airstrikes less effective.
“It’s very difficult to envision any scenario where you could satisfactorily secure the Strait of Hormuz absent ground forces,” Campbell said.
Such an operation would require tens of thousands of troops, not only to neutralize Iran's hidden munitions but also to secure hundreds of miles of coastline and extensive inland areas. U.S. troops would likely face insurgent attacks.
Campbell cautioned that deploying such a force would take several months and involve "very high costs."
Trump asserted on Monday evening that “the strait is open. It will be open,” claiming the U.S. has made significant progress degrading Iran’s capabilities in just a few months. In response, Iran vowed to retaliate against any U.S. interference in the strait.
### Increased Presence Raises Risk of US Losses
Experts suggest another method for ensuring safe commercial transit through the strait is the continuation and escalation of U.S. warships escorting civilian vessels, though this presents its own difficulties and expenses.
The U.S. conducted an escort mission in the 1980s when Iran targeted shipping during its conflict with Iraq. The U.S., which provided intelligence, weaponry, and other aid to Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, escorted Kuwaiti oil tankers that were reflagged as American.
Michael Eisenstadt, a former U.S. military analyst now directing the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated that today’s effort would demand a substantial portion of the U.S. fleet, given its current size is smaller than in the 1980s.
“You’d still need a very large chunk of the U.S. fleet being dedicated to this on an open-ended basis,” Eisenstadt said.
He noted that the contemporary environment is far more complex because Iran has developed advanced capabilities, including drone and missile strike capacity.
Eisenstadt added, “If we were to do what we need to do in order to make this work, which might involve putting people ashore in order to clear anti-cruise missile and drone launch sites, the losses of U.S. service members can go up, and if you’re going to do an escort operation also, the losses can potentially go up.”
### Iran's Threats Alone Can Deter Ships
Commercial vessels have been avoiding traditional strait routes due to fears of Iranian mines. Iran has demanded that ships use a route near its coastline and suggested it could impose fees under a potential interim peace deal. Increasingly, ships are using a southern route along the coast of Oman under U.S. overwatch provided by drones and aircraft.
Capt. Tim Hawkins, spokesman for U.S. Central Command, confirmed ongoing mine clearance operations on some traditional routes but stated that “alternative pathways have been open.”
The southern route has not deterred Iranian attacks on ships, prompting the U.S. military to strike Iranian air defense systems, radar sites, missile and drone equipment, and small boats.
Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy focusing on energy and maritime risks in the Middle East, asserted that Iran's threats alone are sufficient to halt commerce in the strait.
“They don’t need to launch drones and missiles — they can just use the marine radio channel to make some threats,” Raydan said. “And this in itself is enough to scare off a lot of seafarers.”
Clayton Seigle, a nonresident scholar in energy security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, commented that the Trump administration failed to uphold early wartime promises to militarily support shipments, which became a liability of the conflict.
“Those naval escorts, U.S. warships, larger commitments like boots on the ground never came because I think that the rhetoric got a little ahead of our risk tolerance,” Seigle said. “And when push came to shove, the United States was not ready to deploy its Navy, to deploy its other military forces in the capacity that would be needed to even have a shot at neutralizing those threats.”