The head of the World Health Organization stated Wednesday that the ongoing Ebola outbreak in Congo is on track to surpass the deadliest one in history, which caused over 11,000 deaths.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters that "At its current pace, it’s on track to eclipse the West African Ebola outbreak of 2014 to 2016." That previous outbreak had shocked the world and spurred vaccine development efforts.
The outbreak in eastern Congo is currently considered the fastest-growing in history, having resulted in over 2,000 deaths from more than 4,300 cases. Although the outbreak was declared on May 15, health authorities now report that sequencing data indicates it started months earlier, in February.
This current event differs from recent Ebola outbreaks because the rare Bundibugyo virus responsible lacks approved vaccines or treatments, although efforts to address this are ongoing.
### WHO States Outbreak Had Significant Head Start
Experts note that the outbreak is progressing faster than tracking and management efforts can keep up in a remote area of eastern Congo affected by conflict near borders with South Sudan, Uganda, and Rwanda.
Most new cases and fatalities are being reported in communities inaccessible to health workers within a region characterized by poor infrastructure and under-equipped health centers. Some staff have initiated strikes due to unpaid wages. Furthermore, misinformation about the virus is circulating in communities where some residents distrust outsiders, preventing them from visiting clinics.
Tedros stated, "The outbreak had a big head start, still way ahead of us. and we’re playing catch-up."
Dr. Abdirahman Mahamud, WHO’s director for health emergency alert and response operations, anticipates the outbreak's peak within six months.
Mahamud cautioned that this is based on a "moderate scenario," adding, "There is a one-case scenario where this outbreak may last nine months to 12 months."
This Ebola outbreak is killing people at a faster rate than any other, including the 2014-2016 outbreak which registered at least 28,000 cases. That earlier event took approximately eight months to reach 1,000 deaths.
### Two Vaccines for This Virus Type Are Being Tested
Ebola is a rare but highly contagious disease, transmissible through bodily fluids such as vomit, blood, or semen, and via contaminated surfaces and materials like clothing and bedding. The illness it causes is severe and frequently fatal.
Clinical trials for two potential treatments specific to this type of Ebola commenced last month in Ituri, the most affected of the five provinces where cases have been reported.
Tedros announced Wednesday that two vaccines developed specifically for the Bundibugyo virus are now being tested on people for the first time. WHO is also planning studies to determine if an existing Ebola vaccine can offer protection against the virus after animal studies showed promising results.
The origins of the outbreak are becoming clearer. A study published in Nature Medicine on Monday provided evidence suggesting the outbreak began when the virus jumped from an infected animal to a person, rather than originating from prior outbreaks. Researchers determined that this virus is genetically distinct from versions seen in Bundibugyo Ebola outbreaks in 2007 and 2012.