It is arguably the most crucial role of any Israeli prime minister: sustaining positive relations with the United States while resisting demands perceived as jeopardizing Israel’s security.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader, has managed this delicate balance for an extended period. However, with the Iran war at a standstill and U.S. President Donald Trump focusing on peace initiatives elsewhere, Netanyahu's task becomes more difficult less than three months before Israeli elections.
On Sunday, Netanyahu declined Trump’s latest proposal aimed at advancing the stalled Gaza ceasefire. He stated that Israel will not withdraw from any of the approximately 60% of territory it controls until Hamas is completely disarmed—a condition the militant group controlling the remaining 40% has consistently opposed.
Netanyahu risks alienating Trump, whom he has frequently described as Israel’s greatest ally in the White House. Yet, even a minor concession to Hamas could prove detrimental to Netanyahu's re-election prospects in a nation still deeply affected by the October 7, 2023, attack that occurred during his tenure.
Meanwhile, Trump faces pressure to fulfill his commitment as a global peacemaker while talks with Iran remain stalled and gas prices stay high ahead of U.S. congressional elections in November.
Netanyahu asserts no Gaza ceasefire progress without Hamas disarming
The Gaza plan announced by Trump last month evolved from his October ceasefire agreement. That deal concluded major Israeli military operations there and resulted in the release of all remaining hostages, but it has otherwise largely stalled.
Under the latest arrangement, Hamas would gradually relinquish its weaponry while Israeli forces would cease attacks and begin withdrawing from Gaza. Hamas accepted this deal, although the group tied the surrender of its heaviest weapons to the establishment of a Palestinian state—a position vehemently rejected by Israel’s current government and most of its political class.
Netanyahu dismissed the plan, declaring that Israel will not retreat from any of its positions in Gaza until Hamas is fully disarmed. This stance leaves other components of the ceasefire, such as the deployment of international forces and reconstruction efforts in the devastated territory, suspended.
Concurrently, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, the Israeli military appears to have reduced its strikes on Gaza, which have resulted in over 1,250 fatalities since the ceasefire took effect.
Israeli media reported that authority for conducting strikes has been limited to the army's chief of staff, seemingly as a quiet gesture supporting Trump’s ceasefire efforts. The Israeli military did not comment on a request for information.
An official with the Board of Peace, the Trump-led body overseeing the ceasefire, told The Associated Press, “We are focused on actions, not rhetoric or politics.” The official added that there have been "some results on the ground in the last few days," citing "restraint from strikes" and new Israeli military procedures.
The same official, speaking anonymously due to lack of authorization regarding ongoing discussions, stated, “There is constructive cooperation behind the scenes and our conversations continue.”
Oct. 7 looms over a difficult reelection campaign
In his election campaigning, Netanyahu has highlighted Israel’s military successes in the conflicts following the October 7 attack. Israeli forces have captured territory in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, and launched two major air campaigns against Iran and its disputed nuclear program.
However, the "total victory" in Gaza that Netanyahu promised has not materialized. Many Israelis hold him responsible for the security lapses leading to the initial attack, as well as previous attempts to contain Hamas, which at times included permitting Qatar to deliver cash-filled suitcases into Gaza.
Netanyahu’s far-right allies, who are expected to be vital for forming a government post-election, have welcomed his rejection of the Trump plan.
Jonathan Lis, diplomatic correspondent for Israel's Haaretz newspaper, wrote that "Trump 'wants to see real steps taken toward rehabilitating Gaza, while Netanyahu’s two right-wing partners and the Likud’s faltering election campaign is keeping him from yielding even a millimeter.'"
Ghaith al-Omari, a former Palestinian negotiator now a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted that even if the White House disregards Netanyahu's rejection, Trump remains constrained unless he can persuade the Israeli leader to alter his course.
Al-Omari added that Hamas is currently gaining ground in the "blame game" by appearing as the more reasonable party of the two sides.
Trump’s standing in Israel has declined as he attempted to conclude the Iran conflict
During his first term, Trump enjoyed significant popularity in Israel when he provided unprecedented backing for Israel's claims over seized territory, including relocating the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.
This trend continued into his second term, as he supported Israeli actions in Gaza and joined in bombing Iran. This alliance was particularly advantageous to Netanyahu, whose political future was uncertain, as the prime minister relied on Trump to enhance his domestic image.
However, the interests of the two allies diverged last spring. Israel pushed for further strikes against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Trump sought to de-escalate the regional conflict to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and alleviate pressure on the global economy.
Since then, Trump has indicated he would "likely" endorse Netanyahu before the Israeli election but has not provided full support yet. While a formal endorsement from a U.S. president still carries weight in Israel, the growing divergence between the two leaders suggests it could complicate Netanyahu’s campaign.
Yohanan Plesner, head of the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem, stated, “A few months ago, a significant majority of Israelis assumed that when President Trump is making decisions, he’s taking Israeli security interests into account. This is no longer the case.”
Plesner noted that the closeness between Netanyahu and Trump "used to be an asset," but not currently.
Netanyahu has defied previous U.S. presidents, though risks are now greater
Netanyahu possesses a long history of defying U.S. presidents, particularly those from the Democratic party. During his first term in the late 1990s, he resisted President Bill Clinton's efforts to resolve the conflict with Palestinians. He publicly clashed with President Barack Obama over the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.
However, that approach carries greater risks now because Israel’s military campaigns have led to increasing diplomatic isolation and undermined its historical support among Democratic voters in the U.S., leaving Trump as one of Israel's few strong allies.
Plesner said Netanyahu's reliance on Trump is "tremendous," warning that voters will penalize him if he is perceived as mishandling this critical relationship.
He concluded, “If Trump will insist on carrying on, I think Netanyahu will have no choice but to tag along rather than take on the president, since he’s left Israel with very few diplomatic cards to maneuver.”