A declared blockade by Yemen’s Houthi rebels against Saudi Arabia has the potential to broaden the Iran conflict and further disrupt international trade and global oil supplies.
The rebels stated they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to shipping linked to Saudi Arabia in retaliation for the kingdom's blockade of Yemen and a recent attack on the international airport in Sanaa, the capital held by the rebels. The Houthis claimed to have compelled six ships to change course on Tuesday, though this lacked independent confirmation.
Bab el-Mandeb, located at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is a crucial shipping chokepoint connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Approximately 12% of global trade, including one-fourth of all container traffic, passes through these narrows while moving between Asia and Europe via Egypt’s Suez Canal.
The strait has gained increased importance for Saudi oil exports since disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war have severely restricted shipping from the Persian Gulf.
The Houthis maintain they will only target vessels connected to Saudi Arabia or those entering or leaving its Red Sea ports. However, during a comparable blockade announced against Israel over the Gaza war, the rebels attacked numerous vessels with minimal or no connection to that conflict.
The threat alone could deter international shippers from using the route.
Sporadic Attacks Could Largely Block Waterway
The Houthis do not control the portion of Yemen’s coastline along Bab el-Mandeb; this area is controlled by opponents in the country's civil war. Nevertheless, they hold territory less than 100 kilometers (60 miles) away.
Three Houthi officials informed the AP on Tuesday that the group has been planning for months how to disrupt shipping in the strait. These plans reportedly include using naval mines, explosive-laden boats, drones, and helicopters to enable fighters to board ships, the officials said while speaking anonymously because they were not authorized to speak with media.
They indicated that vessels would first receive warnings not to cross designated boundaries within the strait. If ships disregard these warnings, the Houthis would escalate to military action.
In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has demonstrated that even intermittent attacks on ships can effectively close a critical waterway by increasing risks and insurance premiums.
Global Trade Could Face Disruption at Second Chokepoint
Clionadh Raleigh, founder of ACLED, a conflict monitoring service, stated Tuesday, "If Bab el-Mandeb comes under pressure at the same time as shipping in the Gulf, you have disruption around two of the world’s most important maritime routes at once."
Allison Minor, director of the Atlantic Council’s Project for Middle East Integration, wrote in an analysis published Monday that more than 7 million barrels of petroleum daily transited Bab el-Mandeb in June, compared to roughly 4 million before the Iran war.
Saudi Arabia has recently been exporting about 4 million barrels of oil per day through its Yanbu Red Sea port, which has mitigated some of the impact from the Strait of Hormuz closure, though this continues to affect global economies.
Saudi Arabia could still bring crude to market without using Bab el-Mandeb by shipping up to 2.5 million barrels daily across the Red Sea to Egypt, whose SUMED pipeline can transport it to the Mediterranean. It also has the option to ship 1 million barrels daily through the Suez Canal.
International shippers could reroute, similar to what occurred during the peak of the Gaza war. However, this necessitates traveling around the Cape of Good Hope off South Africa, adding one or two weeks to voyages and increasing costs.
Attacks Could Trigger Retaliation and Revive Yemen War
The Houthis attacked over 100 vessels during the height of the Gaza war before a punitive U.S. and Israeli air campaign ended those attacks in early 2025.
U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed the latest threat.
"So far, it hasn’t happened," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday. "I think that if there is something like that, we’ll just have to take care of business."
The Houthis also risk reigniting the war with Saudi Arabia and its allies in Yemen, where major fighting concluded with a truce in 2022. Saudi Arabia's military asserts it will keep Bab el-Mandeb open.
Maj. Gen. Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesperson, stated, "All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy."
Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 when the rebels took control of Sanaa, the capital, and much of northern Yemen, forcing the government into exile. Saudi Arabia has led an international coalition opposing the rebels and imposed an air and sea blockade on Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, a blockade that has eased in recent years.
The Houthis claim Saudi Arabia struck the airport in Sanaa earlier this month while attempting to stop a flight carrying Houthi leaders returning from Iran, where they attended the funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The plane landed safely at an alternate airport.
Subsequently, the Houthis launched missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport in what was the most significant confrontation in years.
The Houthis claim that closing Bab el-Mandeb to Saudi traffic is intended to undermine the coalition's blockade.
Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that the blockade also benefits the Houthis’ ally, Iran, particularly as the U.S. has resumed daily airstrikes.
"From Iran’s perspective, opening additional pressure points across the region gives it more leverage," Nagi said. "The Houthis provide Tehran with influence over one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints."
— Al-Haj reported from Aden, Yemen. Associated Press writer Collin Binkley in Washington contributed.
This story was first published on Jul. 21, 2026. It was updated on Jul. 22, 2026, to correct the name of the body of water to the east of Bab el-Mandeb. It is the Gulf of Aden, not the Gulf of Arabia.