A review by the conflict monitor Airwars, combined with interviews of weapons experts and former defense officials, indicates that Lockheed Martin’s Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), touted as a future ballistic weapon, poses risks when deployed near populated areas. This assessment follows what is believed to be the missile's first combat use during the Iran war.
Airwars found that three missiles impacting Lamerd in the southern city on February 28 killed civilians up to 50 meters (164 feet) from where they detonated, and caused damage more than three times farther away. The detonations occurred above a sports complex and two residential neighborhoods. Iranian officials reported at least 21 civilian deaths, including seven children.
Airwars is noted as the first organization to map the strike's damage radius in Lamerd and estimate the weapon’s lethal range.
The PrSM is engineered to explode midair, projecting tens of thousands of dense metal pellets at high velocity in all directions. Analysis of photos, videos, and satellite imagery from the Lamerd strikes—verified by The Associated Press (AP) and conducted by Airwars—shows buildings, streets, and vehicles were heavily pockmarked in a blast pattern consistent with PrSM capabilities.
The U.S. military has confirmed firing PrSMs into Iran but has denied attacking Lamerd.
The intended target in Lamerd remains unclear; while an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps compound is nearby, satellite images showed no damage there.
Six weapons experts, including two former military officials, told AP they believe the PrSM struck Lamerd and deemed it unlikely that Israeli or Iranian weapons were involved. All experts advised militaries to avoid using the PrSM against targets near civilian areas.
Michael Meier, a former U.S. Army adviser on the laws of war, stated, “You would be hard pressed to find a reason to use the PrSM in a densely populated area.”
### How Airwars Reached Its Conclusions
Airwars, a London-based nonprofit established over a decade ago to track civilian deaths from U.S. airstrikes in Syria and Iraq, also monitors conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and elsewhere. It analyzes publicly available material—including photos, videos, satellite images, social media, and news reports—using geolocation software and other tools.
Airwars applied these methods to investigate the Lamerd strikes by mapping the approximate missile detonation locations, reported civilian death sites, and areas showing damage consistent with blast patterns. It then measured distances between these points to estimate the blast radius.
AP verified Airwars’ blast radius estimate by measuring the distance between where civilians died (based on Iranian media reports) and where the missiles detonated midair (based on security camera footage and other videos). AP also reviewed satellite images, photos, and videos of damage from the attack sites.
Lockheed Martin did not respond to a request for comment regarding the missile's impact width but has released an animated video modeling a PrSM blast.
### US Touted Use of PrSMs in Iran, But Denied Attacking Lamerd
On March 1, the day after the Lamerd strikes, U.S. Central Command posted what munitions experts identified as an image of the PrSM being fired during the Iran operation on X. Three days later, it announced that PrSMs had been used in Iran for a “historic first,” though not specifying the location.
Several weeks later, amid media attention regarding the Lamerd strikes, a Central Command spokesperson stated that U.S. forces did not launch PrSMs or any weapons into Lamerd on February 28 and do not target civilians. The spokesperson suggested footage of one strike pointed to an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile.
Weapons experts countered that the missile seen in security camera video from Lamerd does not match the rounded engine design of that Iranian model.
The Israeli military informed AP it did not strike anywhere as far south as Lamerd on the first day of the war, and experts noted Israel’s military is not known to possess missiles capable of midair detonation.
When questioned about Airwars' and AP’s findings, U.S. Central Command reiterated its denial of responsibility, citing an earlier review of the incident. Its commander, Adm. Brad Cooper, also told Congress in May that investigations were focused on only one instance of U.S. fire killing civilians: a strike on an Iranian school in Minab.
### What the PrSM Is Meant to Do
The U.S. military states these new missiles are intended to replace the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which has been used for decades.
Lockheed Martin reports that while ATACMS can travel about 300 kilometers (186 miles), the PrSM can strike targets over 499 kilometers (310 miles) away.
A key difference from its predecessor, according to Airwars and weapons experts, is that where ATACMS shatters into steel fragments or small bomblets over a target area, an exploding PrSM launches tens of thousands of tungsten pellets in all directions.
Due to tungsten's high density and melting point, these pellets retain their shape after detonation, making them extremely lethal and capable of piercing soft armor, according to defense journals.
### Missiles in Lamerd Caused Damage Far From Where They Exploded
Airwars found footage showing a school in Lamerd damaged by a missile that detonated over the Shahid Naimi Sports Hall approximately 170 meters (557 feet) away. Iranian state media reported this blast killed seven civilians, mostly children; Airwars confirmed these deaths using open-source material. Among those killed were three teenage girls playing volleyball and a woman smoking a hookah outside her home.
A separate blast over the Tal-e Khandagh neighborhood killed 2-year-old Avina Barzegar while she was in her yard. Airwars estimates the pellet that struck Barzegar traveled 50 meters from the blast site, concluding this by geolocating her house using a video of its front gate and measuring the distance to the strike location.
Neither Airwars nor AP found reports indicating military or security personnel were killed in the strikes, nor that military infrastructure was hit.
### The US, UK and Australia Are Committed to Buying More PrSMs
Following the Lamerd strikes, the Pentagon signed a contract with Lockheed Martin worth over $4 billion to quadruple PrSM production. The U.K. announced in June it had allocated 130 million pounds ($177 million) for procurement. Australia purchased the missiles in 2025 and invested billions into the PrSM program in April.
Weapons experts acknowledge the PrSM offers valuable new capabilities but stressed the need for careful usage.
Wes Bryant, a former Pentagon adviser on precision warfare and civilian harm mitigation, stated, “Its proper use should be reserved for things like large concentrations of enemy personnel with hard and soft armor.”
Trevor Ball, a former U.S. Army explosives expert, also urged caution, saying, “It will kill people outside their homes who aren’t protected by walls.”